(507) The Soap Box: Volume 1 Issue 5: Last Revision: 09/25/05
One of our readers, who is rather publicity shy and doesn’t want his name published, penned this article, which is his first try at writing for Mexican Coin Magic. He gives us some prospective about his experience and attempt to determine the rarity of a very difficult series of Mexican Republic coins. I hope you enjoy it and maybe it will encourage other collectors to take pen in hand and let us know what you have found out about the Wonderful World of Mexican Numismatics.
I started collecting 50 centavos from the Mexican Republic period when I bought my first ones at a local coin show about 3 years ago. It’s surprising that I started collecting them, because prior to that time I had never collected foreign coins. Rarity and price are what attracted me to the series, because even though I had never actively studied them, I still had casually observed that they were not seen nearly as often as the Mexican 8 reales from the same period, yet both cost about the same.
From personal experience I can tell you the recipe for changing a collector of American coins into a collector of Mexican Republic coins.
A) You give him/her a book with the prices and mintage figures of Mexican Republic coins
B) You sell him/her $100 or more worth of Mexican Republic coins.
After that, the rest comes automatically.
You see my friends; few collectors can resist the excitement, challenge, and bargain of collecting Mexican Republic coins once they are properly introduced to it.
A year before I started collecting Mexican Republic 50 centavos, I had been given an old copy of 1998 North American Coins & Prices. This book gave mintage figures of Mexican coins, which were unbelievably low for me (an American collector) to accept. Many of the DAMs (Date/Assayer/Mintmarks) did not have reported mintages, and some Mexican collectors told me that many of the reported mintages were not reliable.
Soon after I started collecting Mexican Republic 50 centavos, I was faced with the challenge of unraveling the mystery of what is rare, what is common, what is overpriced, and what is a bargain. Being a former collector of seated liberty coins I was used to the luxury that we collectors of American coins have, a guide book for each series that lays out in black and white what is rare and what is common. I spent a few months looking in vain for such a book on Republic 50 centavos, but only located Resplandores (which only does this for 8 reales).
I soon became a regular troll on the EBAY Mexican coin auctions (OS2GUY1), and later was introduced to mail bid auctions. Gradually I decided that I needed to start keeping records of which coins came up for sale, and how often they came up, so that I would be able to recognize a bargain when I saw one.
I decided to try to fill in the information vacuum by gathering more data on the series. The data gathering effort has been the most exciting numismatic project I have ever engaged in. For the past 2 and a half years I have been accumulating data on the number of 50 centavos from the Mexican Republic period that have appeared for sale on the internet, in auctions, advertisements, and at shows I have attended. I track what is made available for sale, what condition it is in, and how much it sells for. I have even accumulated a set of photos of dies for each DAM, and recorded the varieties when I could identify them from the photos.
Since I started collecting such data, I have tracked about 1,500 Mexican Republic 50 centavo coins. Even though that is a small proportion of the world wide sales for that period, it is still a large enough number of observations that I can start to draw conclusions from my data. After discussing my data with several people, I have come to the following beliefs:
A) I can not yet tell what is rare in this series because rare coins are seldom offered for sale, thus I do not have much data on rare coins in my study. I will have to wait for several more years of data before I can identify rare coins that are at a bargain price.
B) I can not (with complete confidence) yet identify DAMs that are over priced relative to their rarity. I do have enough data on several DAMs to raise suspicions that they are over rated by the collecting public. However it could be that these coins are sold more frequently due to the high prices. A few more years of data collecting will clear this up.
C) While I can not identify over priced coins, I can at least identify high priced coins that are frequently available for sale, thus easily acquired at their current high price.
D) Given my current data, I can WITH CERTAINTY identify the most common DAMs in the series. I will share that data with you in this article.
First, I must say that no DAM in the series is common in the same sense that American Seated Half dollars are common. Even the most common Mexican Republic 50 centavo is only offered for sale about twice per month on average (in my experience of tracking sales). I can not say with certainty from my limited data, but my suspicion is that the most common dates probably only have 20,000 surviving examples each that remain in existence. Several advanced collectors and dealers tell me that the rarest DAMs of this series probably have only about 5 to 20 examples in existence.
Secondly, I must note that my data can not yet be used to try to imply populations of coins. The common, low priced, and low grade coins are not offered in proportion to their numbers, and I am probably not seeing as many of them as I should. I suspect that the common coins are actually more common than my data implies, and the rare coins are probably rarer than my data shows them to be.
Finally, note that while a particular DAM may be common, its various varieties may be quite rare. Do not mistake this article as saying that all varieties of these DAMs are common.
I classify the availability of DAMs by the number of sales in the past two and a half years.
Most Common– 40 or more examples available for sale
Very Common– 30 to 39 examples available for sale
Pretty Common– 20 to 29 examples available for sale
Common– 10 to 19 examples available for sale
Most Common:
1878 ZsS All grades
Very Common:
1887 CnM Grades VF or lower
1894 HoG Grades AU or lower
1880 ZsS Grades XF or lower
Pretty Common:
1880 CnD Grades XF or lower
1870 GoS Grades XF or lower
1871 GoS Grades VF or lower
1872 GoS Grades VF or lower
1874 GoS Grades XF or lower
1877 GoS Grades XF or lower
1884 GoB Grades XF or lower
1876 HoF Grades XF or lower
1886 MoM All grades
1887 MoM Grades AU or lower
1877 ZsS Grades AU or lower
1879 ZsS Grades AU or lower
1887 ZsZ Grades XF or lower
Common:
1875 AsL Grades XF or lower
1876 A L Grades VF or lower
1880 AsL Grades VF or lower
1876 CnP Grades XF or lower
1879 CnD Grades F or lower
1881 CnD Grades VF or lower
1887 DoC Grades VF or lower
1873 GoS Grades XF or lower
1876 GoS Grades VF or lower
1878 GoS Grades VF or lower
1880 GoS Grades XF or lower
1882 GoS Grades XF or lower
1885 GoR Grades AU or lower
1877 HoF Grades AU or lower
1880 HoA Grades XF or lower
1869 MoC Grades XF or lower
1871 PiO Grades VF or lower
1872 PiO Grades VF or lower
1874 PiH Grades VF or lower
1883 PiH Grades VF or lower
1885 PiH Grades XF or lower
1887 PiR Grades XF or lower
1870 ZsH Grades VF or lower
1871 ZsH Grades VF or lower
1872 ZsH Grades XF or lower
1873 ZsH Grades VF or lower
1875 ZsA Grades F or lower
1881 ZsS Grades AU or lower
1884 ZsS Grades VF or lower
Note: All rights are reserved by the author. Do not republish without express consent from the author.
On Tap Next Time...
In our next issue, (Volume 2 Issue 6) we will pry open the door on the subject of Mexican coin rarity. If you have any ideas, feelings, or comments on this subject please contact us before February 15, 2006 with them so we may see that they make this issue.
Let me leave you with this question: Can today’s collector of Mexican Coins, any series, determine the True Rarity of any single coin?